Auto Executives Say More Than Half of U.S. Car Sales Will Be Electric Vehicles by 2030, KPMG Survey Finds

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President Joe Biden speaks during a visit to the General Motors Factory ZERO electric vehicle assembly plant on Wednesday, November 17, 2021, in Detroit.

Evan Vucci | PA

Auto executives believe more than half of their sales will be electric vehicles by 2030, in line with President Joe Biden’s electric vehicle sales target, according to a new survey released Tuesday by the accounting firm and KPMG consultancy.

While estimates ranged significantly from over 20% to around 90%, the survey indicates on average that executives expect 52% of new vehicle sales to be fully electric by 2030. The same amount is expected for Japan and China, according to the survey which polled more than 1,100 world automotive executives.

The results may surprise many investors and industry watchers. The adoption rate of electric vehicles in the United States lags far behind other countries like China. Even when Biden announced the electric vehicle sales target in August, which also includes plug-in hybrid electric vehicles, major automakers Ford Motor and General Motors only pledged a target of between 40% and 50%. by 2030.

Auto forecasters and analysts have also said that while they agree that the adoption of electric vehicles will be rapid, the industry is unlikely to meet Biden’s target.

KPMG said there are important economic assumptions behind the survey results. Seventy-three percent of those polled expect EVs to achieve cost parity with internal combustion engines by 2030. And while 77 percent believe EVs can be widely adopted without government subsidies 91% said they still support such programs.

“There seems to be more optimism about electric vehicles than there was 12 months ago. This is likely due to the billions of dollars in newly committed capital and the multitude of new vehicles entering the market. Having said that, our survey shows a very wide range of opinions on market share in 2030, ”said Gary Silberg, Global Automotive Manager at KPMG.

Access to charging stations, especially fast charging stations for long journeys, remains a barrier to EV adoption for many consumers. KPMG found that 77% of executives expect consumers to demand fast charge times of less than 30 minutes when traveling.

In the United States, less than 20% of existing public electric vehicle chargers are fast chargers, and many cannot charge a vehicle to 80% in 30 minutes or less, according to KPMG.

Start-up

More than 60% of survey participants believe that an influx of new electric vehicle start-ups entering the automotive industry will have a “moderate impact” on the global market. This means that a few will find success. Many will end up being bought by larger companies or remain a niche player, according to the survey.

31% of those polled said they believe start-ups will have a “major impact” on the industry, while 8% believe most, if not all, will fail.

Although the survey did not name any companies, there have been a handful of electric vehicle start-ups that have recently entered the market. The most prominent were Rivian and Lucid, both of which produce vehicles. Others, like Canoo, Lordstown Motors, and Fisker, have yet to generate revenue, if any.

Bullish outlook

The 22 of KPMGsd The annual Global Automotive Executive Survey found that 53% of executives who took part are confident that the auto industry will experience more profitable growth over the next five years, while 38% are concerned about the earnings outlook.

The most optimistic leaders were in the United States and China. The least optimistic leaders were in France and India, with Germany, Japan and Brazil in the middle.

KPMG surveyed 1,118 executives in August. Almost 372 respondents were CEOs and 325 were other senior executives. Almost a quarter of those surveyed were from automakers, while 13% were from leading suppliers, according to KPMG.

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