New York follows California’s lead in banning gas-powered vehicles

0

New York State bans the sale of new gas-powered vehicles by 2035, following California’s lead. California officially approved its regulations last month, banning the sale of new gas-powered cars and trucks by 2035. The Clean Air Act allows California to set its own environmental rules and other states can choose to adopt them . New York Governor Kathy Hochul issued an executive order to the state’s Department of Environmental Conservation to implement the bylaw banning gas-powered vehicles, which will be filed by the end of the year .

Like California, New York’s rules would apply to all new cars, vans and SUVs. The regulations would set annual targets for the share of zero-emission vehicles automakers must sell in the state, starting at 35% in 2026, rising to 68% by 2030 and 100% by 2035, the same warrants that California. Some automakers, such as GM, have embraced the transition to electric vehicles and are working on an eventual phase-out of gasoline-powered vehicles.

New York cities can apply for grants to help them buy zero-emission vehicles for their fleets and to help build electric vehicle charging stations. According to Governor Hochul, $175 million in federal funds from the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act of 2021 would go towards building electric vehicle charging stations. President Biden has set a goal for half of US auto sales to be zero emissions by 2030.

California’s situation

California’s power grid may not be ready for the ban on fossil fuel vehicles, as the state struggles to generate enough electricity to meet demand during its heat waves and has had to institute power outages. To add millions of battery electric vehicles by 2035, California will need to invest in its power grid. The state’s heavy reliance on solar and other renewables – on which it aims to depend for 60% of its energy by 2030 – has proven destabilizing in recent years. In 2020, residents of the state experienced power outages, forcing the state to generate more electricity from natural gas in 2021 to avoid similar outages and to add expensive batteries to back up electricity. wind and intermittent solar energy. California now has one of the highest electricity prices in the country. In June 2022, residential electricity prices in California ranked second, after Hawaii, totaling 28.98 cents per kilowatt hour, 88% higher than the national average.

The Western States Petroleum Association reported that “electrification of the state’s transportation sector will increase demand by approximately 300,000 gigawatt hours, which would be equivalent to a duplication current electricity demand. Charging an electric vehicle is like adding an air conditioner or two to a residence in terms of increasing its energy demand, and many households own multiple vehicles.

There is also the question of whether there will be enough charging stations to serve all electric vehicles. In January 2022, California had 837,887 light electric vehicles (i.e. battery electric, plug-in hybrid and fuel cell) and 1,943 medium and heavy electric vehicles. The state plans to have 1.5 million zero-emission vehicles on its roads by 2025 and at least 5 million on its roads by 2030. According to a 2021 California Energy Commission report, in order to take into charging 5 million electric vehicles, California will need more than 700,000 shared public and private chargers. In a later estimate, that same agency said the state will need 1.2 million chargers by 2030. California currently has 79,023 public and private electric vehicle chargers, just 6.4 percent of that. it will need in 2030.

Another issue is knowing where the critical minerals such as nickel, lithium and cobalt needed for electric vehicle batteries will come from. Although the United States has some of these minerals, regulatory hurdles and lawsuits from environmentalists hinder the development of these mining industries. A new mine in the United States can take seven to 10 years to complete all permits and documents before going live, while in Canada and Australia this process only takes two to three years. A mine in Minnesota (Twin Metals) has been waiting for the green light since 1966. The only electric vehicles that will be eligible for the $7,500 tax credit in the climate bill/tax (the so-called Inflation Reduction Act) are those made in North America from batteries with minerals from American mines or its allies. These requirements are widely considered unachievable by many observers due to the automotive industry’s heavy reliance on battery materials and components from China.

For electric vehicles to account for 100% of new car sales in line with California’s 2035 goal – 17 million per year – current lithium carbonate equivalent production would only meet 0.05% of demand national total of electric vehicle batteries. A US Geological Survey has estimated that to fully electrify its vehicle fleet, the United States will need 1.27 million and 160,000 metric tons of battery-grade nickel and cobalt per year, respectively – the two exceed total world production in 2021. The United States currently has an operating nickel mine in Michigan, which is expected to be depleted by 2026. In January, the Biden administration revoked federal leases for the Twin Metals mine in Minnesota, which contains copper, nickel, cobalt and platinum. -group elements and environmentalists have several mines linked by lawsuits such as the Thacker Pass lithium mine in Nevada. The International Energy Agency estimates that the world will need about 20 times more nickel and cobalt by 2040 than it did in 2020, and 40 times more lithium. Needless to say, prices for these minerals are expected to skyrocket to cover the huge investments needed to meet anticipated demand.

The energy crisis affects electric vehicles

The price of electric vehicles averages $66,000, well above conventional cars, putting them out of reach for most consumers. Finding the lithium and other metals needed for their batteries is a costly challenge and puts China, which dominates the electric vehicle battery supply chain, in the driver’s seat, making the United States dependent on a communist country and our main competitor for energy. The United States is almost four times more dependent on China for the electric vehicle supply chain than it was on the Middle East for oil.

The battery manufacturing process is very energy intensive and can be expensive, depending on the fuel used and the manufacturing location. In Europe, energy-intensive manufacturing is often unprofitable or has been forced to reduce production due to energy-saving regulatory requirements. Due to soaring electricity prices, electric vehicles are losing their fuel cost advantage in Europe. Charging a Tesla in Europe, for example, has become more expensive than refueling a comparable internal combustion engine vehicle. For instance:

The Tesla Model 3 consumes 17 kilowatt hours per 100 kilometers. A comparable ICE car, such as the BMW 3 Series, consumes around 5.0 liters of diesel for the same 100 kilometres. Tesla currently sells electricity for €0.70 per kilowatt-hour to its superchargers in Germany, where it recently opened one of its gigafactories. Thus, driving a Model 3 for 100 kilometers results in fuel expenses of €11.90 ($11.50). Diesel currently costs €1.98 per liter in Germany, on average. The BMW 3 Series consumes €9.90 ($9.60) per 100 kilometres. Using an ICE-powered BMW comparable to Tesla’s electric vehicle today costs around 20% less fuel in Germany. In other European countries, the costs are comparable. In the UK, for example, the diesel-powered BMW 3 costs around $10 per 100 kilometres, while the Tesla Model 3 costs around $11 per 100 kilometres.

As the United States under President Biden pursues policies that seek to emulate Europe’s “energy transition,” Americans may soon find themselves faced with more expensive vehicles requiring more expensive energy sources. Personal transportation could become a thing of the past for many Americans if policy changes are not made.

Conclusion

New York is following California’s lead in banning new gas-powered car sales by 2035, forcing electric vehicles on the public whether they like it or not. It is unclear, however, whether the power grid will be able to handle the increased demand, where the critical minerals needed to manufacture batteries and other vehicle parts will come from, whether there will be enough recharge and how Americans will pay the higher purchase costs.

One of the main arguments in favor of buying an electric vehicle is the reduction in fuel costs. However, fuel costs for electric vehicles are no longer lower in some markets. In the United States, where electricity costs differ from state to state, there are markets where electric vehicles cost less to fuel, but other markets are more favorable to gasoline and diesel vehicles . Consumers are likely to wonder why they would have to buy a new vehicle for several thousand dollars only to end up with higher fuel expenses. Governors Newsom and Hochul and President Biden need to study the issues better before eliminating vehicle choices for American consumers.

Share.

Comments are closed.